Industrial output is now declining across the export oriented economies of central Europe, including the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, as exports to the region’s main trading partners in western Europe drop and investment plans are halted, slowing economic growth and pushing up the jobless rate. We also learned yesterday that employment dropped in February ny 0.2 percent over February 2008, registering the first annual decline since 2004. At the same time, wages increased 5.1 percent, their lowest increase in 27 months.
Another interesting detail here, for those who study the details of economics, is that theindustrial output numbers are not that far removed from the picture painted in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) since the PMI for the Polish manufacturing sector rose in February coming in at 40.8 (from 40.3 in January). Thus the slight improvement in February's situation was already evident in the PMI. Analysts at the time said the February PMI figure more than likely marked a rebound after earlier sharp declines and suggested a weaker zloty may have helped cushion perceptions of the downturn by making exports cheaper.
Polish Central Bank Cuts Rates
Poland’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, to a record low of 3.75 percent as concerns that the economy is stagnating offset worries that the zloty is weakening.
The bank, which has slashed official borrowing costs by 2 percentage points over the past four months, cut its 2009 economic growth forecast by more than half, to 1.1 percent, in February, with some rate setters saying there’s a risk of recession. JP Morgan and Bank of America expect a 1 percent contraction.
Poland’s inflation rate rose in February, the first increase since July, boosted by higher energy prices and a decline in the zloty. The annual rate rose to 3.3 percent from a revised 2.8 percent in January. Consumer prices increased 0.9 percent from the month before after gaining a revised 0.5 percent in January. The EU Harmonised rate was 3.6% in February.
The IPSOS Consumer Confidence Index fell by 4 points from the February level to 67 reach points. The decline is particularly marked in ratings for the economic climate, which fell by 7 points to 47. Such low ratings for the economic climate have not been seen since 1992. Poles evidently believe that the global economic crisis has now affected the heart of their country's economy.
6 comments:
Well, industrial output at the end of April 2009 will be much worst (I frecast down to 25%). EUR will be about 5 PLN in a very close future. Crisis in Poland just started and I suppose will be for next 10-15 months.
That's interesting data. I understand that you have your special agents to collect them.
All polish newspapers are saying that growth month to month was 15,5%
and y/y decline was 2%. It was data from Main Statistical Office.
Below there are links you can read it. If you don't understand Polish, you should, maybe, ask for someone who can translate it for you or use Google.
http://gospodarka.gazeta.pl/gospodarka/1,69866,6518411,GUS__Produkcja_przem__spadla_w_marcu_o_2_proc_.html
http://www.pb.pl/2/a/2009/04/20/Produkcja_przemyslowa_lepsza_od_oczekiwan
I would like to ask you for source of your data. Maybe you got them from those "Good economists" who had better data than "Main Statistical Office". What you wrote in your analysis is pure nonsense because your data are simply wrong. Please, verify your data twice in the future, before you write something. Someone is still reading it. If you are responsible person, you should be responsible for your words.
Thank you very much.
Best regards,
Someone who reads.
Hello there,
"That's interesting data. I understand that you have your special agents to collect them.
All polish newspapers are saying that growth month to month was 15,5% and y/y decline was 2%. It was data from Main Statistical Office."
Yep, but isn't there some confusion here, since you are talking about March data, and this post was about February. So my data is fine, and yours is OK for the next month. Thus, all's well that ends well.
The m-o-m growth seems to be to do with the cars, but the Y-o-Y doesn't seem to be working day corrected does it? March was a very funny month, since last year Easter was in March, and this year it was in April. That's why I think you'll find the Eurostat data when it comes out much more useful for comparative purposes.
http://poland.suite101.com/article.cfm/polands_economy_eastern_europes_bright_spot
Here's a good article related to this
EUROSTAT shows 1,9 % of GDP INCREASE in 1Q in Poland so Polish Zloty should be stronger than just now. Polish market is in good condition.
"EUROSTAT shows 1,9 % of GDP INCREASE in 1Q in Poland so Polish Zloty should be stronger than just now. Polish market is in good condition."
Well I wouldn't go so far as to say good condition, but it is doing less badly than the rest. That is obvious. But maybe it is doing less badly precisely because the Zloty is weaker.
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